Isparta 32 Spor 4–1 Beykoz Anadolu: Result & Stats

Isparta 32 Spor

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Beykoz Anadolu

V. Bora 49'

K. Yılmaz 43', 29'

M. İstemi 19'

H. Küçükköylü 45+2'

11/24/2024

League #205 · Beyaz - 13Isparta Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Isparta 32 Spor68%

×Draw19%

Beykoz Anadolu12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isparta 32 SporExpected goals in this matchBeykoz Anadolu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.75

Isparta 32 Spor

2.08

Beykoz Anadolu

0.75

Isparta 32 Spor creates 177% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.83

creates per match

0.67

0.83

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Isparta 32 Spor

1.83

Beykoz Anadolu

0.67

allows per match

Isparta 32 Spor

0.83

Beykoz Anadolu

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isparta 32 Spor+0.00on par

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isparta 32 Spor ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Isparta 32 Spor or draw

88%

Isparta 32 Spor or Beykoz Anadolu

81%

Draw or Beykoz Anadolu

32%

Winning margin

Isparta 32 Spor wins by 2+

43%

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+

Team goals

Isparta 32 Spor 1+ goals

87%

Isparta 32 Spor 2+ goals

61%

Isparta 32 Spor 3+ goals

34%

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals

53%

Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals

17%

Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Isparta 32 Spor (draw refunded)

85%

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Isparta 32 Spor at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Isparta 32 Spor attack 1.83 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Beykoz Anadolu attack 0.67 + Isparta 32 Spor defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Isparta 32 Spor scores more

68%

level

19%

Beykoz Anadolu scores more

12%

Isparta 32 Spor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Isparta 32 Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

29'

43'

45+2'

46'

E. Durmuş← Ü. Durmuşhan

46'

49'

60'

74'

83'

M. Kılıç← H. Küçükköylü

83'

E. Çağdaş← S. Şahintürk

87'

K. Öztürk← K. Yılmaz

88'

B. Taşdemir← B. Satılmış

90+4'

E. Saçıkara← H. Kulya

90+4'

A. Karademir← M. İstemi

Isparta

Beykoz

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bora

Temelci

⚽

▼

İstemi

▼

Satılmış

⚽2

▼

Yılmaz

Manager: K. Palaz

74'▲İ. Doğanay←▼V. Bora

87'▲K. Öztürk←▼K. Yılmaz

88'▲B. Taşdemir←▼B. Satılmış

90+4'▲E. Saçıkara←▼H. Kulya

90+4'▲A. Karademir←▼M. İstemi

Isparta 32 Spor substitutes

6Doğanay30Öztürk45Taşdemir19Saçıkara20Karademir1Yıldızdağı17Aras88Uludaş95Kömeç21Alphan

Manager: E. Şafak

46'▲E. Durmuş←▼Ü. Durmuşhan

46'▲A. Türk←▼R. Aydın

60'▲A. İyican←▼S. Solmaz

83'▲M. Kılıç←▼H. Küçükköylü

83'▲E. Çağdaş←▼S. Şahintürk

Beykoz Anadolu substitutes

18Durmuş10Türk88İyican9Kılıç20Çağdaş35Gürel45Fırıncı14Ünlü5Özkaya67Demiryürek