Beykoz Anadolu 3–1 Isparta 32 Spor: Result & Stats

Beykoz Anadolu

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Isparta 32 Spor

H. Keklik 90+5'

A. Türk 82'

O. Papaker 7'

Z. Temelci 4'

4/6/2025

League #205 · Beyaz - 3015 Temmuz Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu42%

×Draw22%

Isparta 32 Spor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beykoz AnadoluExpected goals in this matchIsparta 32 Spor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.67

Beykoz Anadolu

1.83

Isparta 32 Spor

1.67

Beykoz Anadolu creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

2.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu

1.67

Isparta 32 Spor

1.00

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu

2.33

Isparta 32 Spor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Isparta 32 Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

Isparta 32 Spor →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw

64%

Beykoz Anadolu or Isparta 32 Spor

78%

Draw or Isparta 32 Spor

58%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+

22%

Isparta 32 Spor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals

84%

Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals

54%

Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals

28%

Isparta 32 Spor 1+ goals

81%

Isparta 32 Spor 2+ goals

50%

Isparta 32 Spor 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)

54%

Isparta 32 Spor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Isparta 32 Spor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.67 + Isparta 32 Spor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Isparta 32 Spor attack 1.00 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more

42%

level

22%

Isparta 32 Spor scores more

36%

Beykoz Anadolu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beykoz Anadolu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

60'

64'

75'

75'

78'

A. Türk← Ü. Durmuşhan

82'

A. Türk

90+2'

H. Keklik← Z. Çınar

90+5'

H. Keklik

Beykoz

Isparta

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: H. Çobanoğlu

60'▲A. Çağdaş←▼T. Ünlü

78'▲A. Türk←▼Ü. Durmuşhan

90+2'▲H. Keklik←▼Z. Çınar

Beykoz Anadolu substitutes

20Çağdaş10Türk72Keklik67Demiryürek8Kurt9Kılıç30Öner61Sarıkaya75Kara90Zan

Manager: K. Palaz

41'▲A. Canlı←▼C. Özdemir

64'▲K. Yılmaz←▼M. Çoban

75'▲V. Bora←▼Z. Temelci

75'▲B. Satılmış←▼F. Aras

Isparta 32 Spor substitutes

16Canlı9Yılmaz70Bora7Satılmış91Dırdıroğlu5Duman75Başkan30Öztürk34Taşkaya19Sungur