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ISOHSA vs FAP — Elite Two 2020

ISOHSA
ISOHSA
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
FAP
FAP
4/12/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ISOHSA51%
×Draw24%
FAP25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ISOHSA
1.74
FAP
1.16

ISOHSA creates 50% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 50 away

creates per match

ISOHSA
2.05
FAP
1.32

allows per match

ISOHSA
1.00
FAP
1.44

finishing

ISOHSA+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ISOHSA ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

ISOHSA or draw
75%
ISOHSA or FAP
76%
Draw or FAP
49%

Winning margin

ISOHSA wins by 2+
28%
FAP wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ISOHSA 1+ goals
82%
ISOHSA 2+ goals
52%
ISOHSA 3+ goals
25%
FAP 1+ goals
69%
FAP 2+ goals
32%
FAP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ISOHSA (draw refunded)
67%
FAP (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ISOHSA at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

FAP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ISOHSA attack 2.05 + FAP defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.74

FAP attack 1.32 + ISOHSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ISOHSA scores more
51%
level
24%
FAP scores more
25%

ISOHSA at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ISOHSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ISOHSA 2 – 3 FAP

FAP beat ISOHSA 3-2 in Elite Two on April 12, 2025.