Ismaily SC 0–2 Zamalek SC: Result & Stats

Ismaily SC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Zamalek SC

O. Dabbagh 56'

A. El Said 7' (pen)

9/18/2025

Premier League · Round 7Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ismaily SC18%

×Draw25%

Zamalek SC57%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ismaily SCExpected goals in this matchZamalek SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.60

Ismaily SC

0.77

Zamalek SC

1.60

Zamalek SC creates 108% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 32 away

0.56

creates per match

1.81

1.39

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Ismaily SC

0.56

Zamalek SC

1.81

allows per match

Ismaily SC

1.39

Zamalek SC

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaily SC ↓

Zamalek SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ismaily SC or draw

43%

Ismaily SC or Zamalek SC

75%

Draw or Zamalek SC

82%

Winning margin

Ismaily SC wins by 2+

5%

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Ismaily SC 1+ goals

54%

Ismaily SC 2+ goals

18%

Ismaily SC 3+ goals

4%

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

80%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

47%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)

24%

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaily SC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Zamalek SC away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaily SC attack 0.56 + Zamalek SC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.77

Zamalek SC attack 1.81 + Ismaily SC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ismaily SC scores more

18%

level

25%

Zamalek SC scores more

57%

Zamalek SC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. El Said

Zamalek SC · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

Juan AlvinaPenalty confirmed

7'

Mohamed Ihab

7'

A. El SaidPenalty

24'

Mahmoud Bentayg

39'

Ibrahim El Nagaawy

45'

S. Moussaddaq← O. Gaber

46'

A. El Dah← M. Ehab

46'

O. El Kot← I. Abdelaal

49'

53'

56'

59'

62'

A. Abdelsalam← K. Al Nabris

62'

M. Khatary← E. Traore

66'

66'

66'

81'

83'

88'

90+5'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IsmailyZamalek

Overview

37%Possession63%

5Total Shots13

1Corners2

14Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots13

1On Target4

3Off Target6

1Blocked3

2Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

284Total Passes501

220Accurate Passes438

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls15

6Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3