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Ismaily SC vs Zamalek SC — Premier League 2024

Ismaily SC
Ismaily SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC
Mohamed Ashraf Roqa 57' (OG)
Y. Annor 19'
I. Ndiaye 38'
5/13/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Ismaïlia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ismaily SC22%
×Draw27%
Zamalek SC51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ismaily SC
0.84
Zamalek SC
1.45

Zamalek SC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ismaily SC
0.73
Zamalek SC
1.62

allows per match

Ismaily SC
1.27
Zamalek SC
0.95

finishing

Ismaily SC+0.00on par
Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaily SC ↓

Zamalek SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ismaily SC or draw
49%
Ismaily SC or Zamalek SC
73%
Draw or Zamalek SC
78%

Winning margin

Ismaily SC wins by 2+
7%
Zamalek SC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ismaily SC 1+ goals
57%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
21%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
5%
Zamalek SC 1+ goals
77%
Zamalek SC 2+ goals
42%
Zamalek SC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
30%
Zamalek SC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaily SC at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Zamalek SC away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaily SC attack 0.73 + Zamalek SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.84

Zamalek SC attack 1.62 + Ismaily SC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ismaily SC scores more
22%
level
27%
Zamalek SC scores more
51%

Zamalek SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Y. Annor
38'
I. Ndiaye↳ S. Akinyoola
44'
Ahmed Abdel Moneim← Mohamed Fawzy
45+4'
Hatem Mohamed
57'
Mohamed Ashraf RoqaOwn goal
62'
Yaw Annor
67'
Sayed Abdallah Sika← Mahmoud Hamdi El Wensh
67'
Seif Gaafar← S. Akinyoola
79'
Karim El Deeb← Y. Annor
88'
Mahmoud Shabrawy← Ahmed Madbouly
88'
Mohamed Makhlouf← Mohamed El Shamy
89'
Ahmed Adel
90+8'
Mahmoud Shabrawy
90+1'
Firas Chaouat

Statistics

IsmailyZamalek
Overview
6Corners7
Discipline
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Ismaily SC vs Zamalek SC

Ismaily SC beat Zamalek SC 2-1 in Premier League on May 13, 2023.

Goals: Y. Annor (19'), I. Ndiaye (38'), Mohamed Ashraf Roqa (57' o.g.).

The match was played at Ismaïlia Stadium in Ismailia.