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Ismaily SC vs Ceramica Cleopatra — League Cup 2021

Ismaily SC
Ismaily SC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
1/17/2024League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Ismaïlia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ismaily SC29%
×Draw28%
Ceramica Cleopatra43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ismaily SC
1.04
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.32

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 27% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ismaily SC
1.08
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.23

allows per match

Ismaily SC
1.42
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.00

finishing

Ismaily SC+0.00on par
Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaily SC ↓

Ceramica Cleopatra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ismaily SC or draw
57%
Ismaily SC or Ceramica Cleopatra
72%
Draw or Ceramica Cleopatra
71%

Winning margin

Ismaily SC wins by 2+
11%
Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ismaily SC 1+ goals
65%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
28%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
9%
Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
73%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
38%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
41%
Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaily SC at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Ceramica Cleopatra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaily SC attack 1.08 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.23 + Ismaily SC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ismaily SC scores more
29%
level
28%
Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
43%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Ismaily SC 1–3 Ceramica Cleopatra

Ceramica Cleopatra beat Ismaily SC 3-1 in League Cup on January 17, 2024.

The match was played at Ismaïlia Stadium in Ismailia.