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Ceramica Cleopatra vs Ismaily SC — Premier League 2018

Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ismaily SC
Ismaily SC
7/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra43%
×Draw29%
Ismaily SC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.25
Ismaily SC
0.96

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 30% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 134 away

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.33
Ismaily SC
0.78

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.14
Ismaily SC
1.18

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par
Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

Ismaily SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw
72%
Ceramica Cleopatra or Ismaily SC
71%
Draw or Ismaily SC
57%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
19%
Ismaily SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
71%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
36%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
13%
Ismaily SC 1+ goals
62%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
25%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
60%
Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 94 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.33 + Ismaily SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ismaily SC attack 0.78 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
43%
level
29%
Ismaily SC scores more
28%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ceramica Cleopatra 1–0 Ismaily SC

Ceramica Cleopatra beat Ismaily SC 1-0 in Premier League on July 3, 2024.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.