Ceramica Cleopatra 1–0 Ismaily SC: Result & Stats

Ceramica Cleopatra

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ismaily SC

6/8/2025

League Cup · Semi-finalsArab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra49%

×Draw28%

Ismaily SC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceramica CleopatraExpected goals in this matchIsmaily SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.85

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.38

Ismaily SC

0.85

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 62% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.86

creates per match

0.50

1.21

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.86

Ismaily SC

0.50

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.21

Ismaily SC

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

Ismaily SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw

77%

Ceramica Cleopatra or Ismaily SC

72%

Draw or Ismaily SC

51%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+

24%

Ismaily SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals

75%

Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals

40%

Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals

16%

Ismaily SC 1+ goals

57%

Ismaily SC 2+ goals

21%

Ismaily SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)

68%

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.86 + Ismaily SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ismaily SC attack 0.50 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more

49%

level

28%

Ismaily SC scores more

23%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff