Ismaily SC 0–1 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

Ismaily SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

3/2/2024

Premier League · Round 15Ismaïlia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ismaily SC52%

×Draw25%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ismaily SCExpected goals in this matchBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.94

Ismaily SC

1.58

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.94

Ismaily SC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 17 away

1.04

creates per match

0.65

1.23

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Ismaily SC

1.04

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.65

allows per match

Ismaily SC

1.23

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaily SC ↓

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ismaily SC or draw

78%

Ismaily SC or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

75%

Draw or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

48%

Winning margin

Ismaily SC wins by 2+

27%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ismaily SC 1+ goals

79%

Ismaily SC 2+ goals

47%

Ismaily SC 3+ goals

21%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals

61%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals

24%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)

70%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaily SC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaily SC attack 1.04 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.58

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 0.65 + Ismaily SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ismaily SC scores more

52%

level

25%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more

22%

Ismaily SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ismaily SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff