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Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs Ismaily SC — Premier League 2018

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ismaily SC
Ismaily SC
7/30/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla35%
×Draw27%
Ismaily SC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1.18
Ismaily SC
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 134 away

creates per match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1.18
Ismaily SC
0.78

allows per match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1.71
Ismaily SC
1.18

finishing

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par
Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla ↓

Ismaily SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla or draw
62%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla or Ismaily SC
73%
Draw or Ismaily SC
65%

Winning margin

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+
14%
Ismaily SC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals
69%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals
33%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals
12%
Ismaily SC 1+ goals
71%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
36%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)
48%
Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 1.18 + Ismaily SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ismaily SC attack 0.78 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more
35%
level
27%
Ismaily SC scores more
38%

Ismaily SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ismaily SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs Ismaily SC

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla beat Ismaily SC 4-2 in Premier League on July 30, 2024.

The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium in Alexandria.