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Isloch Res. vs Belshina Res. — League #562 2026

Isloch Res.
Isloch Res.
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Belshina Res.
Belshina Res.
A. Zimin 90+3'
I. Tikhomirov 66'
A. Matlakh 90'
10/10/2022League #562League #562 · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Isloch Res.84%
×Draw9%
Belshina Res.7%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isloch Res.
4.25
Belshina Res.
1.25

Isloch Res. creates 240% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Isloch Res.
4.33
Belshina Res.
1.17

allows per match

Isloch Res.
1.33
Belshina Res.
4.17

finishing

Isloch Res.+0.00on par
Belshina Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isloch Res. ↓

Belshina Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Isloch Res. or draw
93%
Isloch Res. or Belshina Res.
91%
Draw or Belshina Res.
16%

Winning margin

Isloch Res. wins by 2+
69%
Belshina Res. wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Isloch Res. 1+ goals
98%
Isloch Res. 2+ goals
91%
Isloch Res. 3+ goals
76%
Belshina Res. 1+ goals
71%
Belshina Res. 2+ goals
36%
Belshina Res. 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Isloch Res. (draw refunded)
93%
Belshina Res. (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isloch Res. at home — creates 4.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Belshina Res. away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isloch Res. attack 4.33 + Belshina Res. defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 4.25

Belshina Res. attack 1.17 + Isloch Res. defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Isloch Res. scores more
84%
level
9%
Belshina Res. scores more
7%

Isloch Res. at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Isloch Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
F. I. Sori
45'
A. Zimin
46'
S. Samiev← M. Artyukh
53'
A. Matlakh
59'
K. Malykh← K. Malykh
61'
A. Mikhalenko← A. Davidovich
66'
I. Tikhomirov
74'
V. Zhuravlev← V. Gizhevsky
74'
V. Kovalev← V. Kovalev
86'
K. Tsvetkov← K. Tsvetkov
90'
A. Matlakh
90+1'
M. Shamrin← M. Shamrin
90+3'
A. Zimin
90+4'
V. Kovalev
90+5'
A. Zhukovsky← A. Zhukovsky

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Isloch Res. vs Belshina Res.

Isloch Res. beat Belshina Res. 2-1 in League #562 on October 10, 2022.

Goals: I. Tikhomirov (66'), A. Matlakh (90'), A. Zimin (90+3').