Belshina Res. 0–0 Isloch Res.: Result & Stats

Belshina Res.

FT

0 – 0

Isloch Res.

9/12/2020

League #562 · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Belshina Res.13%

×Draw50%

Isloch Res.37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belshina Res.Expected goals in this matchIsloch Res.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.25

0.58

Belshina Res.

0.25

Isloch Res.

0.58

Isloch Res. creates 132% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

0.50

creates per match

0.33

0.83

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Belshina Res.

0.50

Isloch Res.

0.33

allows per match

Belshina Res.

0.83

Isloch Res.

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belshina Res.+0.00on par

Isloch Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under95
Over5

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No90
Yes10

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina Res. ↓

Isloch Res. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–044%

0–125%

0–27%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–01%

2–11%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (44%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

56%44%1.5

20%80%2.5

5%95%3.5

1%99%4.5

0%100%

Double chance

Belshina Res. or draw

63%

Belshina Res. or Isloch Res.

50%

Draw or Isloch Res.

87%

Winning margin

Belshina Res. wins by 2+

2%

Isloch Res. wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Belshina Res. 1+ goals

22%

Belshina Res. 2+ goals

3%

Belshina Res. 3+ goals

0%

Isloch Res. 1+ goals

44%

Isloch Res. 2+ goals

12%

Isloch Res. 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Belshina Res. (draw refunded)

27%

Isloch Res. (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

3%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina Res. at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Isloch Res. away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina Res. attack 0.50 + Isloch Res. defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.25

Isloch Res. attack 0.33 + Belshina Res. defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Belshina Res. scores more

13%

level

50%

Isloch Res. scores more

37%

Isloch Res. at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Isloch Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

O. Adegbola

58'

A. Cherkas← M. Yansane

70'

A. Kolomatskiy← A. Kolomatskiy

77'

V. Tyushkevich← S. Atrashkevich

88'

A. Grin← A. Grin

89'

D. Nekrashevich← I. Sadovskiy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff