Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Iskra vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport — League #395 2026

Iskra
Iskra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
3/14/2025League #395League #395 · 2nd Phase - 2Stadionul Orăşenesc Rîbnița

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Iskra29%
×Draw25%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iskra
1.20
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.60

Gagauziya-Oguzsport creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Iskra
1.40
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.40

allows per match

Iskra
1.80
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.00

finishing

Iskra+0.00on par
Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iskra ↓

Gagauziya-Oguzsport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Iskra or draw
53%
Iskra or Gagauziya-Oguzsport
75%
Draw or Gagauziya-Oguzsport
71%

Winning margin

Iskra wins by 2+
12%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Iskra 1+ goals
70%
Iskra 2+ goals
34%
Iskra 3+ goals
12%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals
80%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals
47%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Iskra (draw refunded)
38%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iskra at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iskra attack 1.40 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 1.40 + Iskra defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Iskra scores more
29%
level
25%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more
47%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gagauziya-Oguzsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Iskra 0–0 Gagauziya-Oguzsport

Iskra and Gagauziya-Oguzsport drew 0-0 in League #395 on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc Rîbnița in Rîbniţa.