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Gagauziya-Oguzsport vs Iskra — Super Liga 2026

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
AET
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Iskra
Iskra
S. Gheorghiev 89'
C. Bargan 6'
A. Patras 110'
D. A. Popovici 46', 15'
5/7/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundStadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport66%
×Draw19%
Iskra15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.29
Iskra
1.00

Gagauziya-Oguzsport creates 129% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.33
Iskra
0.50

allows per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.50
Iskra
2.25

finishing

Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par
Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagauziya-Oguzsport ↓

Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gagauziya-Oguzsport or draw
85%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport or Iskra
81%
Draw or Iskra
34%

Winning margin

Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+
43%
Iskra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals
90%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals
66%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals
40%
Iskra 1+ goals
63%
Iskra 2+ goals
26%
Iskra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)
81%
Iskra (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Iskra away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 2.33 + Iskra defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Iskra attack 0.50 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more
66%
level
19%
Iskra scores more
15%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Gagauziya-Oguzsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
C. Bargan
15'
D. A. Popovici
46'
D. A. Popovici
89'
S. Gheorghiev
110'
A. Patras

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2–3 Iskra

Iskra beat Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3-2 in Super Liga on May 7, 2025.

Goals: C. Bargan (6'), D. A. Popovici (15', 46'), S. Gheorghiev (89'), A. Patras (110').

The match was played at Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva in Komrat.