Isidro Metapán 4–0 Dragón: Result & Stats

Isidro Metapán

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dragón

9/22/2024

Primera Division · Apertura - 11Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Isidro Metapán46%

×Draw27%

Dragón27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isidro MetapánExpected goals in this matchDragón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.00

Isidro Metapán

1.40

Dragón

1.00

Isidro Metapán creates 40% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 63 away

1.29

creates per match

0.92

1.07

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Isidro Metapán

1.29

Dragón

0.92

allows per match

Isidro Metapán

1.07

Dragón

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Dragón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isidro Metapán ↓

Dragón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Isidro Metapán or draw

73%

Isidro Metapán or Dragón

73%

Draw or Dragón

54%

Winning margin

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

22%

Dragón wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

75%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

41%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

17%

Dragón 1+ goals

63%

Dragón 2+ goals

26%

Dragón 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

63%

Dragón (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isidro Metapán at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 147 matches

Dragón away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.51 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isidro Metapán attack 1.29 + Dragón defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dragón attack 0.92 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Isidro Metapán scores more

46%

level

27%

Dragón scores more

27%

Isidro Metapán at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Isidro Metapán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff