Dragón 2–3 Isidro Metapán: Result & Stats

Dragón

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Isidro Metapán

4/9/2025

Primera Division · Clausura - 17Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dragón38%

×Draw27%

Isidro Metapán35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DragónExpected goals in this matchIsidro Metapán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.21

Dragón

1.27

Isidro Metapán

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 147 away

1.29

creates per match

1.07

1.34

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Dragón

1.29

Isidro Metapán

1.07

allows per match

Dragón

1.34

Isidro Metapán

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dragón+0.00on par

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragón ↓

Isidro Metapán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dragón or draw

65%

Dragón or Isidro Metapán

73%

Draw or Isidro Metapán

62%

Winning margin

Dragón wins by 2+

17%

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dragón 1+ goals

72%

Dragón 2+ goals

36%

Dragón 3+ goals

14%

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

70%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

34%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dragón (draw refunded)

52%

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragón at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Isidro Metapán away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragón attack 1.29 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Isidro Metapán attack 1.07 + Dragón defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dragón scores more

38%

level

27%

Isidro Metapán scores more

35%

Dragón at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dragón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff