Isibania 1–2 Coast Stima: Result & Stats

Isibania

FT

1 – 2

Coast Stima

3/25/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Isibania33%

×Draw30%

Coast Stima37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IsibaniaExpected goals in this matchCoast Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.09

Isibania

1.02

Coast Stima

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

0.65

creates per match

0.78

1.41

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Isibania

0.65

Coast Stima

0.78

allows per match

Isibania

1.41

Coast Stima

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isibania+0.00on par

Coast Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isibania ↓

Coast Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Isibania or draw

63%

Isibania or Coast Stima

70%

Draw or Coast Stima

67%

Winning margin

Isibania wins by 2+

13%

Coast Stima wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Isibania 1+ goals

64%

Isibania 2+ goals

27%

Isibania 3+ goals

8%

Coast Stima 1+ goals

66%

Coast Stima 2+ goals

30%

Coast Stima 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Isibania (draw refunded)

47%

Coast Stima (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isibania at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Coast Stima away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isibania attack 0.65 + Coast Stima defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.02

Coast Stima attack 0.78 + Isibania defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Isibania scores more

33%

level

30%

Coast Stima scores more

37%

Coast Stima at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coast Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff