Coast Stima 1–1 Isibania: Result & Stats

Coast Stima

FT

1 – 1

Isibania

8/12/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Coast Stima66%

×Draw21%

Isibania13%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coast StimaExpected goals in this matchIsibania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.69

Coast Stima

1.88

Isibania

0.69

Coast Stima creates 172% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

1.81

creates per match

0.44

0.94

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Coast Stima

1.81

Isibania

0.44

allows per match

Coast Stima

0.94

Isibania

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coast Stima+0.00on par

Isibania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coast Stima ↓

Isibania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coast Stima or draw

87%

Coast Stima or Isibania

79%

Draw or Isibania

34%

Winning margin

Coast Stima wins by 2+

40%

Isibania wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Coast Stima 1+ goals

85%

Coast Stima 2+ goals

56%

Coast Stima 3+ goals

29%

Isibania 1+ goals

50%

Isibania 2+ goals

15%

Isibania 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Coast Stima (draw refunded)

83%

Isibania (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coast Stima at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Isibania away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coast Stima attack 1.81 + Isibania defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.88

Isibania attack 0.44 + Coast Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Coast Stima scores more

66%

level

21%

Isibania scores more

13%

Coast Stima at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Coast Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff