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Irvine Meadow vs Hill Of Beath Hawthorn — FA Cup 2019

Irvine Meadow
Irvine Meadow
FT
1 – 1
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
8/27/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundMeadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Irvine Meadow23%
×Draw22%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irvine Meadow
1.23
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Irvine Meadow
1.33
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00

allows per match

Irvine Meadow
2.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.13

finishing

Irvine Meadow+0.00on par
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irvine Meadow ↓

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Irvine Meadow or draw
45%
Irvine Meadow or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
78%
Draw or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
77%

Winning margin

Irvine Meadow wins by 2+
9%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Irvine Meadow 1+ goals
71%
Irvine Meadow 2+ goals
35%
Irvine Meadow 3+ goals
13%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1+ goals
86%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2+ goals
59%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Irvine Meadow (draw refunded)
30%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irvine Meadow at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irvine Meadow attack 1.33 + Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack 2.00 + Irvine Meadow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Irvine Meadow scores more
23%
level
22%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn scores more
55%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hill Of Beath Hawthorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irvine Meadow vs Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

Irvine Meadow and Hill Of Beath Hawthorn drew 1-1 in FA Cup on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Meadow Park in Irvine.