Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3–0 Irvine Meadow

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

FT

3 – 0

Irvine Meadow

9/3/2022

FA Cup · 1st Preliminary Round ReplaysKeirs Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn43%

×Draw22%

Irvine Meadow35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hill Of Beath HawthornExpected goals in this matchIrvine Meadow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.73

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.94

Irvine Meadow

1.73

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.88

creates per match

2.33

1.13

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.88

Irvine Meadow

2.33

allows per match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.13

Irvine Meadow

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn+0.00on par

Irvine Meadow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn ↓

Irvine Meadow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn or draw

65%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn or Irvine Meadow

78%

Draw or Irvine Meadow

57%

Winning margin

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn wins by 2+

24%

Irvine Meadow wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1+ goals

86%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2+ goals

58%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3+ goals

30%

Irvine Meadow 1+ goals

82%

Irvine Meadow 2+ goals

52%

Irvine Meadow 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (draw refunded)

55%

Irvine Meadow (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Irvine Meadow away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack 1.88 + Irvine Meadow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Irvine Meadow attack 2.33 + Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn scores more

43%

level

22%

Irvine Meadow scores more

35%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hill Of Beath Hawthorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3–0 Irvine Meadow

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn beat Irvine Meadow 3-0 in FA Cup on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Keirs Park in Hill of Beath.

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Irvine Meadow — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Cup: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3–0 Irvine Meadow