Irtysh 1–0 Okzhetpes: Result & Stats | Cup

Irtysh

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Okzhetpes

R. Esimov 31'

3/15/2024

Cup · Qualifying Round - 2BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Irtysh48%

×Draw28%

Okzhetpes24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IrtyshExpected goals in this matchOkzhetpes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.88

Irtysh

1.35

Okzhetpes

0.88

Irtysh creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.20

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Irtysh

1.20

Okzhetpes

0.75

allows per match

Irtysh

1.00

Okzhetpes

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh+0.00on par

Okzhetpes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh ↓

Okzhetpes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Irtysh or draw

76%

Irtysh or Okzhetpes

72%

Draw or Okzhetpes

52%

Winning margin

Irtysh wins by 2+

23%

Okzhetpes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Irtysh 1+ goals

74%

Irtysh 2+ goals

39%

Irtysh 3+ goals

15%

Okzhetpes 1+ goals

59%

Okzhetpes 2+ goals

22%

Okzhetpes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Irtysh (draw refunded)

66%

Okzhetpes (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Okzhetpes away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh attack 1.20 + Okzhetpes defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Okzhetpes attack 0.75 + Irtysh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Irtysh scores more

48%

level

28%

Okzhetpes scores more

24%

Irtysh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Irtysh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

R. Esimov

22'

A. Abdualiev

22'

N. Izbasarov

22'

22'

31'

31'

62'

K. Kamariden← K. Kamariden

70'

A. Erzhanov← A. Erzhanov

76'

S. Zhumabekov← S. Zhumabekov

76'

M. Amirkhanov← V. Zyabko

77'

O. Adil

80'

I. Kulzhanov← N. Borovskiy

80'

T. Bayzhanov← M. Anishchenko

82'

B. Toleuov

83'

Z. Sultaniyazov← I. Gagaev

90+2'

A. Popov← S. Asainov

90+2'

A. Kanat← A. Kanat

90+3'

A. Erzhanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff