Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Irtysh vs Okzhetpes — Premier League 2019

Irtysh
Irtysh
CANC
14:00
Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
5/30/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Irtysh42%
×Draw27%
Okzhetpes32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh
1.38
Okzhetpes
1.17

Irtysh creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 59 away

creates per match

Irtysh
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.14

allows per match

Irtysh
1.20
Okzhetpes
1.76

finishing

Irtysh+0.00on par
Okzhetpes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh ↓

Okzhetpes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Irtysh or draw
68%
Irtysh or Okzhetpes
73%
Draw or Okzhetpes
58%

Winning margin

Irtysh wins by 2+
19%
Okzhetpes wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Irtysh 1+ goals
75%
Irtysh 2+ goals
40%
Irtysh 3+ goals
16%
Okzhetpes 1+ goals
69%
Okzhetpes 2+ goals
33%
Okzhetpes 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Irtysh (draw refunded)
57%
Okzhetpes (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

Okzhetpes away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh attack 1.00 + Okzhetpes defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Okzhetpes attack 1.14 + Irtysh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Irtysh scores more
42%
level
27%
Okzhetpes scores more
32%

Irtysh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Irtysh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Irtysh vs Okzhetpes — Match Preview

Irtysh face Okzhetpes on May 30, 2020 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Irtysh host Okzhetpes at Ortalıq Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.