Irtysh Omsk 2–1 Dinamo Vladivostok: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Vladivostok

7/26/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 2Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Irtysh Omsk38%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Vladivostok33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vladivostok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.09

Irtysh Omsk

1.19

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.19

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.00

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.00

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.19

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

67%

Irtysh Omsk or Dinamo Vladivostok

72%

Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok

62%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

16%

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

70%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

33%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

30%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

53%

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.00 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.00 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

38%

level

28%

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

33%

Irtysh Omsk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff