Dinamo Vladivostok 1–1 Irtysh Omsk: Result & Stats

Dinamo Vladivostok

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Irtysh Omsk

9/6/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 8Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok40%

×Draw29%

Irtysh Omsk32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VladivostokExpected goals in this matchIrtysh Omsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.03

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.19

Irtysh Omsk

1.03

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

0.93

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.00

Irtysh Omsk

1.13

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

0.93

Irtysh Omsk

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Irtysh Omsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw

68%

Dinamo Vladivostok or Irtysh Omsk

71%

Draw or Irtysh Omsk

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

17%

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

12%

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

64%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

28%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

56%

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.00 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.13 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

40%

level

29%

Irtysh Omsk scores more

32%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff