Irtysh Omsk 1–3 Dinamo Bryansk: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Bryansk

9/9/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 9Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh MU SK Krasnaya zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Irtysh Omsk36%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Bryansk36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

Irtysh Omsk

1.17

Dinamo Bryansk

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

0.78

creates per match

1.11

1.22

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.78

Dinamo Bryansk

1.11

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.22

Dinamo Bryansk

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

64%

Irtysh Omsk or Dinamo Bryansk

72%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

64%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

15%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

69%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

33%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

11%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

50%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.78 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.11 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

36%

level

28%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

36%

Irtysh Omsk at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff