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Irtysh Omsk vs Dinamo Bryansk — First League 2018

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
12/5/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Irtysh Omsk39%
×Draw30%
Dinamo Bryansk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
1.14
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00

Irtysh Omsk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
0.57
Dinamo Bryansk
0.48

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.52
Dinamo Bryansk
1.71

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
68%
Irtysh Omsk or Dinamo Bryansk
70%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
61%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
16%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
68%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
32%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
11%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
63%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
26%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
55%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.57 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.14

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
39%
level
30%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
32%

Irtysh Omsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irtysh Omsk vs Dinamo Bryansk

Irtysh Omsk beat Dinamo Bryansk 1-0 in First League on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Red Star Stadium in Omsk.