Irtysh Omsk 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chertanovo Moscow

E. Kuznetsov 76'

S. Pinyaev 64'

I. Molteninov 23'

8/12/2020

First League · Round 3Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Irtysh Omsk29%

×Draw27%

Chertanovo Moscow44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.36

Irtysh Omsk

1.06

Chertanovo Moscow

1.36

Chertanovo Moscow creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 53 away

0.57

creates per match

1.21

1.52

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.57

Chertanovo Moscow

1.21

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.52

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

56%

Irtysh Omsk or Chertanovo Moscow

73%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

71%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

11%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

65%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

29%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

9%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

74%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

39%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

40%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.57 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.06

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

29%

level

27%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

44%

Chertanovo Moscow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

10'

17'

17'

22'

23'

24'

46'

46'

S. Pinyaev← I. Molteninov

64'

S. Pinyaev

67'

A. Nadolskiy← Y. Zavezen

69'

E. Kuznetsov← I. Buryukin

70'

R. Gordienko

70'

I. Kamyshev← N. Pershin

73'

I. Donskov← R. Gordienko

75'

S. Pinyaev

76'

E. Kuznetsov

77'

P. Shakuro← V. Steklov

87'

A. Shleermakher

88'

M. Saveljev← D. Molchanov

Irtysh

Chertanovo

55

13

3

4

63

31

▼

Zavezen

68

Gerchikov

46

▼

Pershin

28

⚽

▼

Moltenino

11

▼

6

1

3

5

4

▼

Mareev

20

▼

Steklov

9

Morozov

8

Podokseno

27

▼

Buryukin

17

Shleermak

23

Krotov

18

▼

Gordienko

Manager: V. Arays

5'▲A. Kerbs←▼S. Mareev

69'▲E. Kuznetsov←▼I. Buryukin

73'▲I. Donskov←▼R. Gordienko

77'▲P. Shakuro←▼V. Steklov

Irtysh Omsk substitutes

29Kerbs24Kuznetsov14Donskov30Shakuro10Tretjakov13Zubavlenko16Eremenko19Dergachev22Tarabanov

Manager: A. Dmitriev

46'▲S. Pinyaev←▼I. Molteninov

67'▲A. Nadolskiy←▼Y. Zavezen

70'▲I. Kamyshev←▼N. Pershin

88'▲M. Saveljev←▼D. Molchanov

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

17Pinyaev19Nadolskiy5Kamyshev14Saveljev16Yavorskiy30Lyakhov66Gudkov93Molodnyakov