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Irtysh Omsk vs Chertanovo Moscow — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
0 – 2
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
6/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Podol'e

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Irtysh Omsk65%
×Draw18%
Chertanovo Moscow17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
2.42
Chertanovo Moscow
1.17

Irtysh Omsk creates 107% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.43
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.14
Chertanovo Moscow
3.40

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
83%
Irtysh Omsk or Chertanovo Moscow
82%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
35%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
42%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
91%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
69%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
43%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
69%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
33%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
79%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.43 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.42

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
65%
level
18%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
17%

Irtysh Omsk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Irtysh Omsk 0–2 Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat Irtysh Omsk 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Podol'e in Yerino.