Irtysh Omsk 1–0 Akron: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Akron

I. Kireev 45'

10/13/2020

First League · Round 15Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Irtysh Omsk26%

×Draw29%

Akron45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchAkron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.25

Irtysh Omsk

0.88

Akron

1.25

Akron creates 42% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 74 away

0.57

creates per match

0.97

1.52

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.57

Akron

0.97

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.52

Akron

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Akron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

55%

Irtysh Omsk or Akron

71%

Draw or Akron

74%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

9%

Akron wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

59%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

22%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

6%

Akron 1+ goals

71%

Akron 2+ goals

36%

Akron 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

37%

Akron (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Akron away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.57 + Akron defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.88

Akron attack 0.97 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

26%

level

29%

Akron scores more

45%

Akron at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Sergey Podoksenov

45'

I. Kireev

46'

S. Kiryakov← M. Eleev

53'

Anton Krotov

53'

Daur Kvekveskiri

71'

A. Tretjakov← N. Salamatov

73'

A. Kireev← N. Ivannikov

74'

Gennadi Kiselev

75'

A. Potapov← A. Geryugov

78'

Andrey Potapov

80'

V. Drukovskiy← D. Kvekveskiri

84'

A. Kerbs← I. Kireev

86'

Aleksandr Kerbs

90'

I. Buryukin← V. Sychevoy

90+5'

A. Shmykov← R. Gordienko

Irtysh4-4-2

Akron4-4-2

7

▼

Ivannikov

90

Delkin

11

▼

Kvekveski

8

▼

10

27

29

17

▼

13

33

1

60

88

⚽

▼

30

5

15

23

8

21

31

▼

Salamatov

18

▼

Gordienko

77

▼

Sychevoy

Manager: E. Kharlachev

71'▲A. Tretjakov←▼N. Salamatov

84'▲A. Kerbs←▼I. Kireev

90'▲I. Buryukin←▼V. Sychevoy

90+5'▲A. Shmykov←▼R. Gordienko

Irtysh Omsk substitutes

10Tretjakov29Kerbs27Buryukin83Shmykov1Avdyushkin2Krikunenko3Maslovskiy16Eremenko22Tarabanov24Kuznetsov41Zhustjev

Manager: D. Godunok

46'▲S. Kiryakov←▼M. Eleev

73'▲A. Kireev←▼N. Ivannikov

75'▲A. Potapov←▼A. Geryugov

80'▲V. Drukovskiy←▼D. Kvekveskiri

Akron substitutes

98Kiryakov88Kireev87Potapov2Drukovskiy5Pjanchenko12Gorbunov18Malakhovskiy66Zhestokov70Goylo77Yatskiy

First League: Irtysh Omsk 1–0 Akron

Irtysh Omsk beat Akron 1-0 in First League on October 13, 2020.

Goals: I. Kireev (45').

The match was played at Red Star Stadium in Omsk.

Irtysh Omsk vs Akron — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Irtysh Omsk 1–0 Akron