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Akron vs Irtysh Omsk — First League 2026

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
4/7/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 35Crystal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Akron47%
×Draw28%
Irtysh Omsk25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.36
Irtysh Omsk
0.90

Akron creates 51% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 21 away

creates per match

Akron
1.30
Irtysh Omsk
0.86

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Irtysh Omsk
1.43

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Akron or draw
75%
Akron or Irtysh Omsk
72%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
53%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
23%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
74%
Akron 2+ goals
39%
Akron 3+ goals
16%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
59%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
23%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
66%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.86 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Akron scores more
47%
level
28%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
25%

Akron at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Akron 1–1 Irtysh Omsk

Akron and Irtysh Omsk drew 1-1 in First League on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Crystal Stadium in Zhigulevsk.