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Ironi Tiberias vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
11/27/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 9Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ironi Tiberias65%
×Draw19%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
2.19
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.97

Ironi Tiberias creates 126% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.58
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.11

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
0.82
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.79

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
84%
Ironi Tiberias or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
81%
Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
35%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
41%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
89%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
64%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
37%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
62%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
25%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
81%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.58 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.19

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
65%
level
19%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
16%

Ironi Tiberias at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Ironi Tiberias 3–0 Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Ironi Tiberias beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3-0 in Liga Leumit on November 27, 2023.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.