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Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
3/4/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 24Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram19%
×Draw22%
Ironi Tiberias59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.01
Ironi Tiberias
1.93

Ironi Tiberias creates 91% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.89
Ironi Tiberias
1.64

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.22
Ironi Tiberias
1.14

finishing

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or draw
41%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram or Ironi Tiberias
78%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
81%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
7%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
64%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
27%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
8%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
85%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
57%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
25%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 0.89 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
19%
level
22%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
59%

Ironi Tiberias at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1–2 Ironi Tiberias

Ironi Tiberias beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2-1 in Liga Leumit on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.