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Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
5/8/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Promotion Group - 6Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ironi Tiberias50%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
1.51
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
0.94

Ironi Tiberias creates 61% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.58
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.06

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
0.82
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.44

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
76%
Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
74%
Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
50%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
26%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
78%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
44%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
19%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
61%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
24%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
68%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.58 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.51

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
50%
level
26%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
24%

Ironi Tiberias at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Ironi Tiberias beat Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1-0 in Liga Leumit on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.