Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–0 Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ironi Tiberias

4/5/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 29HaShalom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm31%

×Draw27%

Ironi Tiberias43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Umm al-FahmExpected goals in this matchIroni Tiberias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.38

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.13

Ironi Tiberias

1.38

Ironi Tiberias creates 22% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 36 away

1.13

creates per match

1.64

1.13

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.13

Ironi Tiberias

1.64

allows per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.13

Ironi Tiberias

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm ↓

Ironi Tiberias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or draw

57%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or Ironi Tiberias

73%

Draw or Ironi Tiberias

69%

Winning margin

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+

12%

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals

68%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals

31%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals

11%

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

75%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

40%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)

42%

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 109 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.13 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more

31%

level

27%

Ironi Tiberias scores more

43%

Ironi Tiberias at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–0 Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm and Ironi Tiberias drew 0-0 in Liga Leumit on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at HaShalom Stadium in Umm al-Fahm.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–0 Ironi Tiberias