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Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
9/21/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 5Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ironi Tiberias48%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
1.46
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.00

Ironi Tiberias creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 129 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.58
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.18

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
0.82
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.33

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
74%
Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
74%
Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
52%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
24%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
77%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
43%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
18%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
65%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.58 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.18 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
48%
level
26%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
26%

Ironi Tiberias at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Ironi Tiberias 2–1 Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Ironi Tiberias beat Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2-1 in Liga Leumit on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.