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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
9/19/2022Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 5Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion32%
×Draw26%
Ironi Tiberias42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.19
Ironi Tiberias
1.42

Ironi Tiberias creates 19% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.24
Ironi Tiberias
1.64

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.21
Ironi Tiberias
1.14

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
58%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Ironi Tiberias
74%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
68%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
13%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
12%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
76%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
41%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
43%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
32%
level
26%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
42%

Ironi Tiberias at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2–0 Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Rishon LeZion beat Ironi Tiberias 2-0 in Liga Leumit on September 19, 2022.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon LeZion.