Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Petah Tikva

Ironi Tiberias

Preview

17:00

Hapoel Petah Tikva

8/22/2026

Ligat Ha'al · Round 1Green Stadium

Big match

46%

Ironi Tiberias

model favours

46%25%29%

Hapoel Petah Tikva score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ironi Tiberias46%

×Draw25%

Hapoel Petah Tikva29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi TiberiasExpected goals in this matchHapoel Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.20

Ironi Tiberias

1.58

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.20

Ironi Tiberias creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

1.30

creates per match

1.09

1.30

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias

1.30

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.09

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias

1.30

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw

71%

Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Petah Tikva

75%

Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva

54%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

24%

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

79%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

47%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

21%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

70%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

34%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

61%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.30 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.09 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more

46%

level

25%

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

29%

Ironi Tiberias at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Hapoel Petah Tikva are unbeaten in 5 straight
Hapoel Petah Tikva win just 14% against the top half (vs 42% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Tiberias

LDWWW

Tikva

WDDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff