Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — Liga Leumit 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
Ironi Tiberias41%
Hapoel Petah Tikva31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ironi Tiberias creates 20% more chances
Season form · 38 home / 60 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ironi Tiberias ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches
Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.82 · 60 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ironi Tiberias attack 1.58 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.20
Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.18 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Ironi Tiberias at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ironi Tiberias host Hapoel Petah Tikva on Friday, 27 January 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the Liga Leumit 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva beat Ironi Tiberias 1-0 in Liga Leumit on January 27, 2023.
Goals: R. Stein (89' pen).
The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.