Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–2 Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Petah Tikva

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ironi Tiberias

S. Bilenkyi 90'

G. Hadida 71'

9/27/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Round 5HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva44%

×Draw27%

Ironi Tiberias29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchIroni Tiberias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.08

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.40

Ironi Tiberias

1.08

Hapoel Petah Tikva creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

1.03

creates per match

0.91

1.26

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.03

Ironi Tiberias

0.91

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.26

Ironi Tiberias

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Ironi Tiberias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw

71%

Hapoel Petah Tikva or Ironi Tiberias

73%

Draw or Ironi Tiberias

56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

21%

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

75%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

41%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

17%

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

66%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

29%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

60%

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.03 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ironi Tiberias attack 0.91 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

44%

level

27%

Ironi Tiberias scores more

29%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

D. Nir← S. Rosen

33'

39'

42'

42'

45+5'

46'

46'

46'

C. Songa← Cle

51'

R. Santos

52'

O. Yitzhak← E. Balilti

65'

R. David← N. Niddam

66'

N. Gotlieb← P. Michael

66'

Y. Teper← F. Abu Akel

71'

75'

77'

77'

82'

84'

O. Peretz

87'

Y. Swisa← U. Mohammed

87'

I. Baranes← G. Hadida

90'

S. Bilenkyi↳ W. Habiballa

Hapoel

Ironi

1

17

99

4

14

A

Habiballa

6

▼

Akel

10

▼

Mohammed

7

⚽

▼

Hadida

15

▼

Balilti

90

▼

Michael

9

⚽

Bilenkyi

1

Katz

2

▼

Cohen

25

Dgani

66

Rotman

35

▼

Rosen

8

Altman

13

▼

Niddam

30

Bi

10

Adeniyi

77

▼

Cle

7

▼

Mazal

Manager: Omer Peretz

30'▲D. Nir←▼S. Rosen

46'▲C. Songa←▼Cle

65'▲R. David←▼N. Niddam

77'▲B. Golan←▼N. Cohen

77'▲M. Koszta←▼S. Mazal

Hapoel Petah Tikva substitutes

18Mashiah3Navi20Cohen23Nir11Golan16David4Gosha9Koszta17Songa

Manager: Eliran Hudeda

52'▲O. Yitzhak←▼E. Balilti

66'▲N. Gotlieb←▼P. Michael

66'▲Y. Teper←▼F. Abu Akel

87'▲Y. Swisa←▼U. Mohammed

87'▲I. Baranes←▼G. Hadida

Ironi Tiberias substitutes

22Sharon21Hasson74Chen2Yitzhak11Gotlieb27Swisa5Teper18Baranes19Shviro