Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Kfar Saba — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
11/4/2022Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 12Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ironi Tiberias46%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Kfar Saba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
1.43
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.03

Ironi Tiberias creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 95 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.58
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.25

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
0.82
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.28

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
73%
Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Kfar Saba
73%
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba
54%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
22%
Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
76%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
42%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
17%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
64%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
28%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
63%
Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.58 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.25 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
46%
level
27%
Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
27%

Ironi Tiberias at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Kfar Saba

Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Kfar Saba drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.