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Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
4/7/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Promotion Group - 2Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba30%
×Draw26%
Ironi Tiberias44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.19
Ironi Tiberias
1.48

Ironi Tiberias creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.23
Ironi Tiberias
1.64

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.33
Ironi Tiberias
1.14

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw
56%
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Ironi Tiberias
74%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
70%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
12%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
12%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
77%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
43%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
41%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
30%
level
26%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
44%

Ironi Tiberias at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Kfar Saba 0–2 Ironi Tiberias

Ironi Tiberias beat Hapoel Kfar Saba 2-0 in Liga Leumit on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.