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Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Afula — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
2/9/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 21Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ironi Tiberias53%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Afula22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
1.60
Hapoel Afula
0.92

Ironi Tiberias creates 74% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 129 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.58
Hapoel Afula
1.02

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
0.82
Hapoel Afula
1.61

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Hapoel Afula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
78%
Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Afula
75%
Draw or Hapoel Afula
47%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
28%
Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
80%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
47%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
22%
Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
60%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
23%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
71%
Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.61 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.58 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hapoel Afula attack 1.02 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
53%
level
25%
Hapoel Afula scores more
22%

Ironi Tiberias at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Afula

Hapoel Afula beat Ironi Tiberias 2-0 in Liga Leumit on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.