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Hapoel Afula vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
10/2/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 6Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hapoel Afula30%
×Draw26%
Ironi Tiberias44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Afula
1.17
Ironi Tiberias
1.46

Ironi Tiberias creates 25% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hapoel Afula
1.21
Ironi Tiberias
1.64

allows per match

Hapoel Afula
1.27
Ironi Tiberias
1.14

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw
56%
Hapoel Afula or Ironi Tiberias
74%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
70%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
12%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
69%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
11%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
77%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
43%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
41%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more
30%
level
26%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
44%

Ironi Tiberias at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Afula vs Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Afula and Ironi Tiberias drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.