Ironi Tiberias 1–1 Hapoel Acre: Result & Stats

Ironi Tiberias

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Acre

1/12/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 17Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ironi Tiberias48%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Acre25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi TiberiasExpected goals in this matchHapoel Acre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.95

Ironi Tiberias

1.41

Hapoel Acre

0.95

Ironi Tiberias creates 48% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 130 away

1.58

creates per match

1.07

0.82

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias

1.58

Hapoel Acre

1.07

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias

0.82

Hapoel Acre

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Hapoel Acre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw

75%

Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Acre

73%

Draw or Hapoel Acre

52%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

76%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

41%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

17%

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

61%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

25%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

65%

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.58 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more

48%

level

27%

Hapoel Acre scores more

25%

Ironi Tiberias at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff