Hapoel Acre 1–1 Ironi Tiberias: Result & Stats

Hapoel Acre

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ironi Tiberias

8/31/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 2Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hapoel Acre32%

×Draw27%

Ironi Tiberias41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AcreExpected goals in this matchIroni Tiberias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.34

Hapoel Acre

1.15

Ironi Tiberias

1.34

Ironi Tiberias creates 17% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 36 away

1.16

creates per match

1.64

1.04

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Hapoel Acre

1.16

Ironi Tiberias

1.64

allows per match

Hapoel Acre

1.04

Ironi Tiberias

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Acre ↓

Ironi Tiberias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Acre or draw

59%

Hapoel Acre or Ironi Tiberias

73%

Draw or Ironi Tiberias

68%

Winning margin

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

13%

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

68%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

11%

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

74%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

39%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

44%

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Acre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.04 · 129 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Acre attack 1.16 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Acre scores more

32%

level

27%

Ironi Tiberias scores more

41%

Ironi Tiberias at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff