Ironi Tiberias 1–0 Beitar Jerusalem: Result & Stats

Ironi Tiberias

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beitar Jerusalem

S. Bilenkyi 90+3'

8/31/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 2Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ironi Tiberias30%

×Draw23%

Beitar Jerusalem47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi TiberiasExpected goals in this matchBeitar Jerusalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.80

Ironi Tiberias

1.40

Beitar Jerusalem

1.80

Beitar Jerusalem creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

1.50

creates per match

2.17

1.44

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias

1.50

Beitar Jerusalem

2.17

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias

1.44

Beitar Jerusalem

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw

53%

Ironi Tiberias or Beitar Jerusalem

77%

Draw or Beitar Jerusalem

70%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

13%

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

75%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

41%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

17%

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

83%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

54%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

39%

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.50 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Beitar Jerusalem attack 2.17 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more

30%

level

23%

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

47%

Beitar Jerusalem at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

F. Abu Akel

26'

B. Vahaba

56'

S. Konstantini

62'

Y. Shua← D. Micha

62'

N. Markovitch← T. Muzi

68'

G. Cohen

69'

H. Elhamed← F. Abu Akel

70'

N. Markovitch

76'

N. Markovitch

76'

N. Markovitch

84'

N. Bazea← W. Habiballah

84'

F. Mazurek← J. Botaka

86'

S. Kani← P. Twumasi

90'

S. Talias← E. Belilti

90+2'

N. Dabush← M. George

90+3'

S. Bilenkyi↳ H. Shapso

Ironi

Beitar

55

18

4

5

2

15

▼

Micha

8

Levi

10

Yona

23

▼

George

27

▼

Twumasi

11

▼

Muzi

19

Daniel

23

Vahaba

15

▼

72

37

10

14

▼

Habiballa

6

▼

Akel

70

▼

Botaka

9

⚽

Bilenkyi

99

A

Shapso

Manager: E. Hudeda

69'▲H. Elhamed←▼F. Abu Akel

84'▲N. Bazea←▼W. Habiballah

84'▲F. Mazurek←▼J. Botaka

90'▲S. Talias←▼E. Belilti

Ironi Tiberias substitutes

44Elhamed11Bazea20Mazurek17Talias4Shahar30Badjie13Apelbaum60Bomshtein21Sha'aban

Manager: B. Itzhaki

62'▲Y. Shua←▼D. Micha

62'▲N. Markovitch←▼T. Muzi

86'▲S. Kani←▼P. Twumasi

90+2'▲N. Dabush←▼M. George

Beitar Jerusalem substitutes

7Shua16Markovitch26Kani12Dabush20Dahan1Carmi44Deri28Israeli19Mizrachi