Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Ironi Tiberias: Result & Stats

Beitar Jerusalem

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ironi Tiberias

S. Kani 69'

J. Botaka 57' (pen)

12/23/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 15Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Beitar Jerusalem55%

×Draw23%

Ironi Tiberias22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beitar JerusalemExpected goals in this matchIroni Tiberias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.07

Beitar Jerusalem

1.84

Ironi Tiberias

1.07

Beitar Jerusalem creates 72% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

1.73

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Beitar Jerusalem

1.73

Ironi Tiberias

1.14

allows per match

Beitar Jerusalem

1.00

Ironi Tiberias

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Jerusalem ↓

Ironi Tiberias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Beitar Jerusalem or draw

78%

Beitar Jerusalem or Ironi Tiberias

77%

Draw or Ironi Tiberias

45%

Winning margin

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

31%

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

84%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

55%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

28%

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

66%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

29%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

72%

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Jerusalem at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.73 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.14 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

55%

level

23%

Ironi Tiberias scores more

22%

Beitar Jerusalem at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

E. Balilti

38'

T. Muzie

42'

Y. Teper

57'

Z. Zasno← T. Muzi

57'

J. BotakaPenalty

58'

S. Kani← A. Yona

63'

69'

73'

76'

81'

I. Soro← Y. Levi

85'

G. Cohen

87'

N. Dabush← P. Twumasi

89'

W. Habiballah← S. Bilenkyi

90+1'

F. Abu Akel

90+2'

D. Micha

Beitar

Ironi

19

23

15

72

37

6

5

16

70

⚽

Botaka

9

▼

99

55

18

4

5

15

8

▼

Levi

10

▼

Yona

23

George

27

A

▼

Twumasi

7

Shua

11

▼

Muzi

Manager: B. Itzhaki

57'▲Z. Zasno←▼T. Muzi

58'▲S. Kani←▼A. Yona

81'▲I. Soro←▼Y. Levi

87'▲N. Dabush←▼P. Twumasi

Beitar Jerusalem substitutes

2Zasno26Kani6Soro12Dabush44Deri19Mizrachi14Jeno1Carmi20Dahan

Manager: E. Hudeda

89'▲W. Habiballah←▼S. Bilenkyi

Ironi Tiberias substitutes

14Habiballah60Bomshtein13Apelbaum17Talias20Mazurek11Ohana10Brik18Tubul21Sha'aban

Match Recap: Beitar Jerusalem vs Ironi Tiberias

Beitar Jerusalem and Ironi Tiberias drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on December 23, 2024.

Goals: J. Botaka (57' pen), S. Kani (69').

The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.

Beitar Jerusalem vs Ironi Tiberias — Ligat Ha'al 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Beitar Jerusalem vs Ironi Tiberias