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Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2/26/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 23Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona72%
×Draw17%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2.42
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.84

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 188% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2.05
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.11

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.58
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.79

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par
Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw
89%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
83%
Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
28%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
49%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
91%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
69%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
43%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
57%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
86%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 2.05 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.42

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
72%
level
17%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
11%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2-1 in Liga Leumit on February 26, 2024.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.