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Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — Liga Leumit 2019

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
11/20/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 8Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram15%
×Draw22%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.78
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.86

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 138% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.89
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.50

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.22
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.67

finishing

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or draw
37%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
78%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
85%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
4%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
54%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
18%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
4%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
84%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
55%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
19%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 0.89 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.50 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
15%
level
22%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
63%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2-0 in Liga Leumit on November 20, 2023.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.