Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3–0 Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

2/1/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 19Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona56%

×Draw24%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Kiryat ShmonaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Rishon LeZion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.88

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.69

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

0.88

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 92% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 129 away

2.05

creates per match

1.18

0.58

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

2.05

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.18

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

0.58

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw

81%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

76%

Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

44%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

31%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

82%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

50%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

24%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals

59%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals

22%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

74%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 2.05 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.18 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

56%

level

24%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more

19%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff